Modi too: the race for south block 09.

so the much awaited Gujarat election results have come. Narendra Modi has not only won, but also has gone beyond expectations and won with almost 2|3 majority.

something to celebrate for the main opposition party which has been struggling to get back to feet after the 04 shock, and a matter of concern for the Congress, which has failed to fully make use of the favorable circumstances because of a rather weak party organization, and bad electoral strategy.
and may be a rather grim prospect for the liberal community of India.


the aim of this write up is not an election analysis. but to point out another interesting rather long term political possibility.

although LK Advani has been officialy projected as the 'Next PM in Waiting' by the BJP, with his win in Gujarat in an election which was fought on the central theme of 'Modi or No Modi', Narendra Modi has also thrown his hat in the ring.

for that matter, 2007 has been a year, where there has been too many hats thrown into this ring. first in May there was the UP election, and the beyond expectation performance of the BSP and its leader Mayavati did cause flutters within the political intellectual circles in New Delhi. people like the Indian Express editer in chief Shekhar Gupta had started speculating about 'possibilities 09, in which the BSP leader can even become a strong candidate for the prime ministership. the argument has its own logic. the BJP's struggles are going on. although the party had shown some healthy signs in the elections to Punjab and Uthranjal, it was absolutely belted in its old fort!. the BSP over the years has been showing a tendency towards expanding beyond UP, and has been able to get numbers to play spoil sport in many other states, and that might help it to get some coalitional possibilities. with all that, the BSP has the potential to emerge with some 50 odd seats. if the circumstances are favorable, Maya could have a crack at political power at the national level. even she has a chance to become the PM, although the master political strategist that she is, I doubt the possibility of her accepting instability at the national level on her head, when she would be in a position to dictate terms without taking the burden directly on her head.

the next PM material arrived when Rahul Gandhi has been officialy given some important party responsibilities. Rahul's UP assignment had ended up as an absolute fiasco and his and his mother's inability to win Gujarat own there own proves that the Congress needs to go beyond tradition, and strengthen the party organization for the charisma factor to work. . Rahul's efforts at revitalizing the congress feeder organization can be the first step in the long struggle. also he needs to establish a reach of personality beyond the congress worker. considering the lack of experience of the younger Gandhi, and the lack of strength of the party organization in many states, the congress would do well to keep him out of the PM's race for the time being. for the time being, the Good Doctor would do.

during the gujarat election fever, LK. ADvani was officialy declared as the BJP's PM candidate for 09. after the humiliation of 2005, the command of the party is back in his hands. the Sangh has also realized that the BJP's much talked about 2nd rank is not really up to marks, and they needed the support of the old hand itself. although a sharp political strategist, Advani's one dimenssional image as a hard liner won't help matters. in fact, even the 05 Jinna remark was a master political move to atempt a mid way course correction. but unfortunatly for Advani, the people who should have realized it the most got no sense of what he was trying. now after he is back in control, Advani might struggle to motivate the BJP, which is marooned in total confusion about the path to be taken. in 04, the party was taking a more moderate strategy of development and'India Shining'. after the debacle the hardliners pressed a course correction towards 'Hindutva'. when the strategy returned absolute disaster in UP, the party had nowhere to go. now with Modi, who regardless of his latest champianing of development has been considered the heart throb of hindu extremism winning in Gujarat, the direction Advani and BJP would take is very much interesting to watch.

and who knows, 'Modiism' might become the order of the day in BJP? if not in 09, Modi is there or there about vying for the throne in New Delhi in the near future. but for that to happen, he has to broaden his horizons and from this term at least, practice a more inclusive democratic politics. a politics of selected marginalization, and undemocratic political intolerance would get him nowhere, if at all he has any idea of broadening his political map. perhaps that would be the only hope for the minority both social and political in Gujarat for the next 5 years.